A proposal for selective resuscitation of adult cardiac arrest patients in a pandemic.

Allocation of limited resources in pandemics begs for ethical guidance. The issue of ventilator allocation in pandemics has been reviewed by many medical ethicists, but as localities activate crisis standards of care, and health care workers are infected from patient exposure, the decision to pursue cardiopulmonary resuscitation (CPR) must also be examined to better balance the increased risks to healthcare personnel with the very low resuscitation rates of patients infected with coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). A crisis standard of care that is equitable, transparent, and mindful of both human and physical resources will lessen the impact on society in this era of COVID-19. This paper builds on previous work of ventilator allocation in pandemic crises to propose a literature-based, justice-informed ethical framework for selecting treatment options for CPR. The pandemic affects regions differently over time, so these suggested guidelines may require adaptation to local practice variations.

Who gets the ventilator? A multicentre survey of intensivists' opinions of triage during the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic.

BACKGROUND: The COVID-19 pandemic has caused a shortage of intensive care resources. Intensivists' opinion of triage and ventilator allocation during the COVID-19 pandemic is not well described. METHODS: This was a survey concerning patient numbers, bed capacity, triage guidelines, and three virtual cases involving ventilator allocations. Physicians from 400 ICUs in a research network were invited to participate. Preferences were assessed with a five-point Likert scale. Additionally, age, gender, work experience, geography, and religion were recorded. RESULTS: Of 437 responders 31% were female. The mean age was 44.4 (SD 11.1) with a mean ICU experience of 13.7 (SD 10.5) years. Respondents were mostly European (88%). Sixty-six percent had triage guidelines available. Younger patients and caretakers of children were favoured for ventilator allocation although this was less clear if this involved withdrawal of the ventilator from another patient. Decisions did not differ with ICU experience, gender, religion, or guideline availability. Consultation of colleagues or an ethical committee decreased with age and male gender. CONCLUSION: Intensivists appeared to prioritise younger patients for ventilator allocation. The tendency to consult colleagues about triage decreased with age and male gender. Many found such tasks to be not purely medical and that authorities should assume responsibility for triage during resource scarcity.

COVID-19: Data-Driven optimal allocation of ventilator supply under uncertainty and risk.

This study presents a new risk-averse multi-stage stochastic epidemics-ventilator-logistics compartmental model to address the resource allocation challenges of mitigating COVID-19. This epidemiological logistics model involves the uncertainty of untested asymptomatic infections and incorporates short-term human migration. Disease transmission is also forecasted through a new formulation of transmission rates that evolve over space and time with respect to various non-pharmaceutical interventions, such as wearing masks, social distancing, and lockdown. The proposed multi-stage stochastic model overviews different scenarios on the number of asymptomatic individuals while optimizing the distribution of resources, such as ventilators, to minimize the total expected number of newly infected and deceased people. The Conditional Value at Risk (CVaR) is also incorporated into the multi-stage mean-risk model to allow for a trade-off between the weighted expected loss due to the outbreak and the expected risks associated with experiencing disastrous pandemic scenarios. We apply our multi-stage mean-risk epidemics-ventilator-logistics model to the case of controlling COVID-19 in highly-impacted counties of New York and New Jersey. We calibrate, validate, and test our model using actual infection, population, and migration data. We also define a new region-based sub-problem and bounds on the problem and then show their computational benefits in terms of the optimality and relaxation gaps. The computational results indicate that short-term migration influences the transmission of the disease significantly. The optimal number of ventilators allocated to each region depends on various factors, including the number of initial infections, disease transmission rates, initial ICU capacity, the population of a geographical location, and the availability of ventilator supply. Our data-driven modeling framework can be adapted to study the disease transmission dynamics and logistics of other similar epidemics and pandemics.

The fairness of ventilator allocation during the COVID-19 pandemic.

There is ongoing debate on how to fairly allocate scarce critical care resources to patients with COVID-19. The debate revolves around two views: those who believe that priority for scarce resources should primarily aim at saving the most lives (SML) or at saving the most life-years, and those who believe that public health should focus on health equity to address health disparities and social determinants of health. I argue that maximizing medical outcomes by saving the greatest number of patients is not a plausible strategy for combating COVID-19. There are reasons of fairness to give each patient who can meet general eligibility requirements a chance of being saved. Rather than focusing on outcome maximization, a better solution would be the individualist lottery that takes account of probability of survival and duration of treatment. Although the individualist lottery allocates scarce resources in a fair way that is responsive to health equity concerns, it still gives considerable weight to the concern of SML. Thus, this procedure can be reasonably accepted by all key stakeholders.

US Ventilator Allocation and Patient Triage Policies in Anticipation of the COVID-19 Surge.

Before the predicted March 2020 surge of COVID-19, US healthcare organizations were charged with developing resource allocation policies. We assessed policy preparedness and substantive triage criteria within existing policies using a cross-sectional survey distributed to public health personnel and healthcare providers between March 23 and April 23, 2020. Personnel and providers from 68 organizations from 34 US states responded. While half of the organizations did not yet have formal allocation policies, all but 4 were in the process of developing policies. Using manual abstraction and natural language processing, we summarize the origins and features of the policies. Most policies included objective triage criteria, specified inapplicable criteria, separated triage and clinical decision making, detailed reassessment plans, offered an appeals process, and addressed palliative care. All but 1 policy referenced a sequential organ failure assessment score as a triage criterion, and 10 policies categorically excluded patients. Six policies were almost identical, tracing their origins to influenza planning. This sample of policies reflects organizational strategies of exemplar-based policy development and the use of objective criteria in triage decisions, either before or instead of clinical judgment, to support ethical distribution of resources. Future guidance is warranted on how to adapt policies across disease type, choose objective criteria, and specify processes that rely on clinical judgments.

Pandemics, Protocols, and the Plague of Athens: Insights from Thucydides.

When confronted by the novel ethical challenges posed by a pandemic, it is helpful to turn to history for guidance and direction. In this essay, the author revisits Thucydides's description of the Plague of Athens from The Peloponnesian War as he considers the New York State Task Force on Life and the Law's 2015 guidelines on ventilator allocation. Confronted by the exigencies of the Covid-19 surge that struck New York, he questions the task force's decision not to give any degree of preference to health care workers who might become ill. He posits that they are due a compensatory ethic and some deference given the risks they have assumed, often with inadequate protective gear. Reflecting on his ambivalence, he asks if his change of heart reflects the impact of experiential learning or the erosion of nomos-or governing norms-described by Thucydides when the plague struck Athens.